Skip to content

Knowing the deal that matters.

Unfiltered talk on property, money and global shifts, kept to what matters.

Confirm through the email now in your inbox, and the next briefing goes there.

Costs nothing, and you can stop whenever you like. Regular breakdowns as the market moves.

90,300

Office

Office Conversions Are Finally Becoming A Real Housing Pipeline

Apartment units in the office-to-residential conversion pipeline at the start of 2026, up 28% from a year earlier (RentCafe, March 2026).

+3.3%

Apartments

The K-Shape Has Come To Multifamily

Renter-by-Necessity rents, year over year. Lifestyle apartment rents fell 0.2% over the same stretch (Yardi Matrix, June 2026).

-480 bps

Warehouses

Modern Warehouses Are Full. Legacy Warehouses Are Not.

Vacancy in newly built industrial space, year over year. Older space moved the other way, up 70 basis points (Cushman & Wakefield, first quarter of 2026).

$11B

Grocery retail

The $11 Billion Bet On Boring Real Estate

Grocery-anchored deal volume in 2025 came to nearly $11 billion, up 42% from the year before (JLL).

33%

Homes

First-Time Buyers Just Hit 33% Of The Market

Share of June home closings that went to first-time buyers, up from 30% a year earlier (National Association of REALTORS).

What you'll find here

  • Real Estate

    The primary focus: where property is heading and the forces moving prices.

  • Money & Power

    How global shifts and government policy ripple through the economy and hit your wallet.

  • Smart Moves

    Where the big money is headed, so you stay ahead of the curve.

By The Numbers

Headlines are the start. Each briefing traces what drives the numbers behind them.

  • about$875B

    in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt maturing in 2026, about 17% of the $5 trillion market.

    Source: MBA-linked reporting

    Why it matters

    The refinancing wall is not a single crash point. As more loans mature, the market will sort weak buildings from weak capital stacks.

  • 684,388

    California FAIR Plan policies in March 2026, with about $750 billion of exposure.

    Source: California FAIR Plan, the state's last-resort insurer

    Why it matters

    Housing value depends on what a property can earn and on whether it can be protected, financed, and owned over time.

  • roughly395,000

    Citizens policies in Florida by January 2026, down from about 1.42 million in October 2023.

    Source: Citizens Property Insurance, Florida's state-backed insurer

    Why it matters

    Fewer policies suggest more homeowners are returning to private insurers. Florida is showing signs of repair.

  • more than$60B

    in U.S. chip manufacturing investment, with up to $40 billion tied to the Sherman, Texas site.

    Source: Texas Instruments

    Why it matters

    The factory is the anchor, but the real estate story spreads outward. Follow the jobs, but also follow the land that those jobs will need.

Latest briefings

All briefings

Economic gravity

Most analysis is either flashy hype or academic theory. While others chase the hot tip, I focus on moves that are bound to happen, backed by demographic shifts and real-world data.

Paul Greenamyer

For the last 16 years, I've worked behind the scenes as a strategist for everyone from agile startups to billion-dollar enterprises.

The straight story starts here

The bottom line without the typical marketing spin, delivered to your inbox, completely free.

Confirm through the email now in your inbox, and the next briefing goes there.